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[Taxacom] Molecular evidence (in 2017) supports my 2014 theory about rafting killifish

Michael A. Ivie mivie at montana.edu
Fri Jan 1 16:41:13 CST 2021


Yes, that is getting there. Cite those studies that also support your 
argument that are not part of the "panbiogeography literature."
>
> "You keep citing the panbiogeography literature as justification for 
> the Panbiogeography view."
>
> Apologies if that appeared to be the case. I was probably citing the 
> literature as having the studies pertinent to the issues. But if you 
> can refer me to something specific I can address that.
>
> This is like citing Scientology literature to explain Scientology 
> reality.
>
> Not having studied Scientology in any detail I don't know. But agreed, 
> I have cited panbiogeographic studies to explain or present their results.
>
> Can you use something independent to support your views? Or does it 
> have to be internal “evidence?” Because that is not logically convincing.
>
> What do you mean as 'something independent' to support the 
> panbiogeographic conclusions? I guess it's up to you and everyone 
> else to decide what is sufficient as 'support'. For example there are 
> over 225 documented cases of disjunctions or offsets either side of 
> the Alpine Fault of New Zealand where the lateral movement was 
> initiated 23 Ma. The panbiogeographic view is that there is a causal 
> connection so all of these taxa (or their immediate ancestors for 
> sister group disjunctions) are at least 23 Ma. I suppose one could 
> just take the view that the correlation is meaningless. In which case 
> I suppose nothing will be 'convincing'.
>
> Now that I write this I recall that there have been frequent instances 
> where molecular divergence estimates are older or match the 
> panbiogeographic findings.  So that is a sort of independent evidence 
> I suppose. These are regularly cited in Heads' studies. And don't 
> forget those novel geological predictions that have since been 
> corroborated by geological discovery. I've mentioned that in the past 
> and some respond with indifference. Each to their own.
>
> Cheers, John Grehan
>
> On Fri, Jan 1, 2021 at 2:17 PM Ivie, Michael <mivie at montana.edu 
> <mailto:mivie at montana.edu>> wrote:
>
>     You keep citing the panbiogeography literature as justification
>     for the Panbiogeography view. This is like citing Scientology
>     literature to explain Scientology reality. Can you use something
>     independent to support your views? Or does it have to be internal
>     “evidence?” Because that is not logically convincing.
>
>
>     __________________________________________________
>     Michael A. Ivie, Ph.D., F.R.E.S.
>
>     NOTE: two addresses with different Zip Codes depending on carriers
>
>     *US Post Office Address:*
>     Montana Entomology Collection
>     Marsh Labs, Room 50
>     PO Box 173145
>     Montana State University
>     Bozeman, MT 59717
>     USA
>
>     *UPS, FedEx, DHL Address:*
>     Montana Entomology Collection
>     Marsh Labs, Room 50
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>     Montana State University
>     Bozeman, MT 59718
>     USA
>
>     (406) 994-4610 (voice)
>     (406) 994-6029 (FAX)
>     mivie at montana.edu <mailto:mivie at montana.edu>
>
>     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>     *From:* Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> on behalf of John
>     Grehan via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     *Sent:* Friday, January 1, 2021 9:56 AM
>     *To:* Kenneth Kinman <kinman at hotmail.com <mailto:kinman at hotmail.com>>
>     *Cc:* taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu> <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     *Subject:* Re: [Taxacom] Molecular evidence (in 2017) supports my
>     2014 theory about rafting killifish
>     Hi Ken,
>
>     The idea that there has to be a constant molecular clock
>     throughout the
>     phylogenetic history of a group is not an empirical finding. It is
>     a model
>     of evolution that may not be true. We see this in the
>     morphological aspect
>     of molecular genetics where different groups separated or
>     dislocated by a
>     tectonic feature show different levels of morphological divergence
>     (for
>     example with the NZ Alpine fault dislocation where correlated
>     distributions
>     may be conspecific or species level differences even after more
>     than 20
>     million years. So the panbiogeographic implication of tectonic
>     correlation
>     is that this provides an approximation of age for the correlated
>     groups. It
>     has no necessary implication for the upper limits of their
>     phylogenetic
>     origins involving other sister taxa. If molecular clock models
>     incorporating a tectonic correlation result in unacceptable
>     results that
>     does not invalidate the tectonic correlation. But it does raise
>     questions
>     about the molecular model.  Nothing ridiculous about it at all.
>     This has
>     been commented on in the panbiogeography literature.
>
>     Whether or not the acceptance of geological correlations as an
>     empirical source of evidence for vicariance is 'extreme obsession'
>     or not
>     is neither here nor there. Fact is that fossil calibrated divergence
>     estimates are minimums and no one, including yourself, has
>     demonstrated
>     anything to the contrary. And now what has been drawn to attention
>     is the
>     larger and more problematic issue as to whether there is a constant
>     molecular clock over long periods of time. Like priors, molecular
>     clocks
>     are also theoretical models (and there are different models) and
>     open to
>     question or refutation. I would like to see you, Ken, show how a
>     constant
>     molecular clock is substantiated as empirical evidence (I guess
>     you won't
>     based on your past reluctance concerning fossil calibration, but I
>     might as
>     well ask).
>
>     Cheers, John Grehan
>
>
>
>     On Fri, Jan 1, 2021 at 10:59 AM Kenneth Kinman via Taxacom <
>     taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> wrote:
>
>     > Hi Rob,
>     >         Thank you for the work you have done on this subject in
>     spite of
>     > panbiogeographer's criticisms.  I just read your critique of
>     Heads, 2005
>     > (Smissen et al., 2005 "Dating nodes on molecular phylogenies:
>     older or
>     > younger than the Earth itself?"
>     >         The following is certainly a valid criticism of Heads:
>     "If this
>     > was then extrapolated to the tribal‐level divergences (around 0.4
>     > substitutions per site) within the Caryophyllaceae that we used as a
>     > calibration for our dating, then the Caryophyllaceae are
>     projected to be in
>     > excess of 10 billion years old."
>     >        It would take an extremely wild fluctuating molecular
>     clock for
>     > panbiogeographers to explain this away.  And yet all Grehan
>     could suggest
>     > in his latest post was:  "Only if the 'clock' was constant
>     throughout.
>     > Maybe it's not."  That is a rather ridiculous statement, and
>     certainly
>     > provides none of the "empirical evidence" that he is always
>     demanding.  It
>     > only provides yet another example of their extreme obsession with
>     > vicariance.
>     >
>     >
>     https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1111%2Fj.1096-0031.2005.00077.x&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7C7a3eaa762f0646a6459b08d8ae763cf9%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451170171721685%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=reRAYgm23itk6cbeV82NIa9r52s3NraTNUQuOZ%2BSjsk%3D&amp;reserved=0
>     <https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1111%2Fj.1096-0031.2005.00077.x&data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7Ca0f7a64f09004a537c8808d8aea561d0%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451372646053978%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=nFpdASvV9do2kX7j9BHPGgLOytA2wg9D%2Fd6%2FvJUdpdE%3D&reserved=0>
>     >
>     >
>     > ________________________________
>     > From: Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> on behalf of Rob
>     > Smissen via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     > Sent: Thursday, December 31, 2020 2:59 AM
>     > To: John Grehan <calabar.john at gmail.com
>     <mailto:calabar.john at gmail.com>>; taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu> <
>     > taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     > Subject: Re: [Taxacom] Molecular evidence (in 2017) supports my 2014
>     > theory about rafting killifish
>     >
>     > I think this sort of argument is why people consider
>     panbiogeography to be
>     > analogous with creationism. Personally, I don’t think it’s a
>     fair analogy.
>     > Creationism is significantly less credible than panbiogeography,
>     but that
>     > is not saying much. It is not enough to say that clades might be
>     older than
>     > guestimated from the fossil record, or that molecular clocks are
>     very bad
>     > clocks. I would like to see the panbiogeographers accounts of
>     how among
>     > lineage rate variation and older ages of fossils combine to explain
>     > patterns in DNA sequence data. It’s a black art, put in whatever
>     priors you
>     > want, give us some actual results.
>     >
>     > -----Original Message-----
>     > From: Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> On Behalf Of John
>     > Grehan via Taxacom
>     > Sent: Tuesday, 29 December 2020 10:57 AM
>     > To: Michael Heads <m.j.heads at gmail.com <mailto:m.j.heads at gmail.com>>
>     > Cc: Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     > Subject: Re: [Taxacom] Molecular evidence (in 2017) supports my 2014
>     > theory about rafting killifish
>     >
>     > One interesting thing about De Baets et al is that one of the
>     authors,
>     > Philip Donoghue, is a molecular biologist who has published on
>     molecular
>     > systematics. Makes one wonder (or it should) that a molecular
>     systematists
>     > resorts to referring to molecular divergence practice as a 'dark
>     art'. If a
>     > molecular systematists can't make scientific sense of it, who
>     can? I am
>     > assuming that Donoghue isn't stupid.
>     >
>     > On Mon, Dec 28, 2020 at 1:07 PM Michael Heads via Taxacom <
>     > taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     wrote:
>     >
>     > > Ken, you write:  'It is interesting that Heads quotes De Baets *et
>     > > al*.,
>     > > 2016 as saying ‘could be considered a dark art’, but their
>     source for
>     > > that "dark art" comment was Heads himself (Heads, 2012; "Bayesian
>     > > transmogrifcation..."'). That's not correct.
>     > >
>     > > De Baets et al wrote: '...molecular clocks must be calibrated by
>     > > estimates of divergence timing and so it has become necessary [if
>     > > you're relying on fossils] to provide a probabilistic
>     judgement of the
>     > > degree to which fossil minima approximate divergence timing. The
>     > > established means of achieving this could be considered a dark art
>     > > (Heads, 2012)'. But I did not use the phrase 'dark art' in my own
>     > > paper or anywhere else.
>     > >
>     > > On Mon, Dec 28, 2020 at 9:57 AM Kenneth Kinman via Taxacom <
>     > > taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> wrote:
>     > >
>     > > > Thanks Jason,
>     > > >         Your post was very good.  It was then followed by
>     Heads who
>     > > > (like
>     > > > Grehan) just repeats the same old arguments.  It is
>     interesting that
>     > > Heads
>     > > > quotes De Baets *et al*., 2016 as saying ‘could be
>     considered a dark
>     > > art’,
>     > > > but their source for that "dark art" comment was Heads himself
>     > > > (Heads, 2012; "Bayesian transmogrifcation...").
>     > > >         I don't understand why Heads and Grehan have to bash
>     those
>     > > > who disagree with them, using phrases like "dark art", twaddle,
>     > > > transmogrification, "geological data manipulation", "magical
>     black
>     > > > box", and on and on.  Especially when it appears in
>     scientific papers.
>     > > >        By the way, I was reading a published reply to Heads,
>     2011
>     > > > (in which he repeatedly accused his opponents of
>     > > > transmogrification).  In
>     > > that
>     > > > reply, they say: "We demonstrate here that calibration using
>     > > > tectonic events, as suggested by Heads (2011), generates an
>     > > > unrealistic hypothesis where the evolution of Asteraceae
>     must have
>     > > > taken place contemporary with or earlier than the Cambrian
>     > > > explosion. This would be hundreds of million years earlier
>     than the
>     > origin of the asterids."
>     > > >       This reply to Heads can be read here:
>     > > >
>     https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Facademic.oup.com%2Fsysbio%2Farticle%2F61%2F3%2F522%2F1670654&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7C7a3eaa762f0646a6459b08d8ae763cf9%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451170171721685%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=vmCO53XuYax3coRP1mfrM70JccI9%2Fo880r6BILjDVVw%3D&amp;reserved=0
>     <https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Facademic.oup.com%2Fsysbio%2Farticle%2F61%2F3%2F522%2F1670654&data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7Ca0f7a64f09004a537c8808d8aea561d0%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451372646063972%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=XMnaUn1l5DFxtyQHDBsqkGWW8xeGZfN3s%2Bhk644svH8%3D&reserved=0>
>     > > >
>     > > > ________________________________
>     > > > From: Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> on behalf of
>     > > > Michael Heads via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     > > > Sent: Sunday, December 27, 2020 1:26 PM
>     > > > To: JF Mate <aphodiinaemate at gmail.com
>     <mailto:aphodiinaemate at gmail.com>>
>     > > > Cc: Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
>     > > > Subject: Re: [Taxacom] Molecular evidence (in 2017) supports
>     my 2014
>     > > > theory about rafting killifish
>     > > >
>     > > > '...not a magical black box'.
>     > > >
>     > > > No, it's definitely a magical black box. You can get any
>     date you want.
>     > > > Here's a section from a recent manuscript:
>     > > >
>     > > > *The problem of the priors*
>     > > >
>     > > > In the Modern Synthesis approach, ‘Fossils record the
>     origins and
>     > > > disappearance of organisms’ (Herrera, 2017). However, a clade’s
>     > > > actual
>     > > age
>     > > > is older than its oldest fossil’s age by an unknown amount
>     of time.
>     > > > In
>     > > most
>     > > > studies, clade ages are calculated from fossil-calibrated
>     > > > molecular-clock analyses. However, fossil calibrated studies on
>     > > > their own can provide
>     > > only
>     > > > minimum ages. In Bayesian analyses, these *fossil* ages are
>     > > > converted
>     > > into
>     > > > estimates of absolute (not minimum) *clade* ages by imposing
>     priors
>     > > > that stipulate how much older than its oldest fossil a clade is.
>     > > > Naturally,
>     > > the
>     > > > estimates of clade age are extremely sensitive to the time
>     priors
>     > > (Warnock
>     > > > *et
>     > > > al*., 2015).
>     > > >
>     > > > The problem is that the choice of the priors is left up to the
>     > > > author,
>     > > and
>     > > > the priors that are chosen are invariably very narrow; in other
>     > > > words, a clade used for calibration is assumed to be not
>     much older
>     > > > (often <10
>     > > Myr)
>     > > > than
>     > > > its oldest fossil. This use of very narrow priors represents the
>     > > > formal imposition of an old belief – that fossil age more or
>     less
>     > > > equals clade age.
>     > > >
>     > > > Choosing priors is ‘highly arbitrary’ (Pirie and Doyle, 2012),
>     > > > ‘...often subjective…’ (Ho & Duchêne, 2014), ‘invariably
>     established
>     > > > without justification’ (Warnock *et al*., 2015) and, in sum,
>     ‘could
>     > > > be
>     > > considered a
>     > > > dark art’ (De Baets *et al*., 2016). Thus, while the clade ages
>     > > > generated in Bayesian studies are extremely precise and have
>     > > > excellent statistical support, becaue of the problem of the
>     priors
>     > > > they can be ‘grossly inaccurate’ (dos Reis *et al*., 2016)
>     and could
>     > > > be tens or even hundreds
>     > > of
>     > > > millions of years too young. As Hauenschild *et al.* (2018)
>     > > > observed,
>     > > clade
>     > > > ages that are too young may be calculated ‘based on too
>     narrowly set
>     > > > priors, and vicariance thereby may be erroneously ruled out’.
>     > > >
>     > > > On Mon, Dec 28, 2020 at 2:59 AM JF Mate via Taxacom <
>     > > > taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
>     <mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> wrote:
>     > > >
>     > > > > John, you are not discussing the points nor answering the
>     > > > > questions but simply repeating "twaddle" in an attempt to
>     rescue a
>     > > > > point of view (Croizatian Panbiogeography) which is simply
>     > > > > untenable nowadays. All biogeographers consider vicariance and
>     > > > > dispersal, and their definition
>     > > of
>     > > > > dispersal does not depend on accepting Panbiogeography.
>     > > > >
>     > > > > As for node calibration, exponential and lognormal bounds
>     are not
>     > > maximum
>     > > > > ages but probability curves which extend the "minimum"
>     node age
>     > > > > into
>     > > the
>     > > > > past as a first step. The model then works the best fit
>     based on
>     > > > > the
>     > > data
>     > > > > at hand and gives you estimated ages with ranges. That is a
>     > > > > transparent model, not a magical black box as you are
>     claiming.
>     > > > >
>     > > > > It is fair to argue if the model parameters are adequate,
>     if the
>     > > fossils
>     > > > > used are properly interpreted, or to reanalyze the data.
>     These are
>     > > > > all limitations, but simply using them to disregard
>     studies out of
>     > > > > hand
>     > > > because
>     > > > > they don't support your point of view is not helpful.
>     > > > >
>     > > > > Best
>     > > > >
>     > > > > Jason
>     > > > >
>     > > > >
>     > > > >
>     > > > > On Sat, 26 Dec 2020, 01:57 John Grehan,
>     <calabar.john at gmail.com <mailto:calabar.john at gmail.com>>
>     > > wrote:
>     > > > >
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Jason – thank you for elaborating on the defense of minimums
>     > > > > > misrepresented as maximums. Comment below:
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “0.5 SD on the fossil's age seems a reasonable and
>     conservative
>     > > range”
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > 'reasonable or not' it's still just made up out of thin
>     air. It
>     > > > > > is
>     > > > magic.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “Are you arguing for a minimum hardbound and if so what
>     is your
>     > > > > > justification? “
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Yes, although not sure what you mean by 'hardbound'.  A
>     minimum
>     > > > > > is a minimum so it is hardbound in that respect.
>     Justification
>     > > > > > is simple, fossils provide minimum ages and no data on
>     potential
>     > > > > > older ages of
>     > > > > origin
>     > > > > > for the taxon in question.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “why not use lognormal or exponential for both points
>     and maybe
>     > > > > > some sensitivity analysis in regards to this but other
>     than that
>     > > > > > I
>     > > wouldn't
>     > > > > call
>     > > > > > it twaddle”
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > You are welcome to use anything you like, but it's still
>     magic
>     > > > > > and
>     > > the
>     > > > > > result is twaddle. A minimum cannot be turned into a
>     maximum.
>     > > > > > That is
>     > > > the
>     > > > > > reality. The rest is an invention of the imagination.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “This argument is at best specious. Molecular
>     calibrations have
>     > > > > > been
>     > > > > using
>     > > > > > soft calibrations for well over a decade now to account
>     for the
>     > > > > > uncertainties that you mention “
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Wrong, the molecular calibrations misrepresent minimum
>     ages as
>     > > maximum.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “ majority use either lognormal or exponential bounds “
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > So what? They are both inventions of the mind – magical
>     > > transformation
>     > > > of
>     > > > > > minimum into maximum.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “In other words, there is already the acknowledgement
>     that known
>     > > > fossils
>     > > > > > may not be the oldest exemplars of a taxon, but you have
>     to work
>     > > > > > with
>     > > > > what
>     > > > > > you have
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > of course. But if fossils may not be the oldest
>     exemplars then
>     > > > > > the molecular extrapolations may not be either. To say
>     otherwise
>     > > > > > is to
>     > > > > invoke a
>     > > > > > magical transformation - not science as I understand it.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “ and, when new fossil evidence is discovered,
>     corrections will
>     > > > > > be
>     > > > made.”
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Corrections to what? Corrections to a maximum that never
>     was in
>     > > > > > the
>     > > > first
>     > > > > > place?
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > “What you are asking for is the legal equivalent of proving
>     > > > > > someone's innocence.”
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Rubbish. I am asking that the empirical reality be
>     recognized –
>     > > > > > that fossil calibrated molecular divergence dates be
>     recognized
>     > > > > > as minions
>     > > > > that
>     > > > > > cannot falsify earlier origins or biogeographic correlations
>     > > > > > that may suggest earlier origins.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Molecular transformations of minimums into maximums is
>     perhaps
>     > > > > > the
>     > > only
>     > > > > > modern case of magic being used in science that I am
>     aware of
>     > > > > > (other
>     > > > than
>     > > > > > perhaps some political inventions with COVID). Just to
>     be sure
>     > > > > > that
>     > > > there
>     > > > > > is no misunderstanding (as has happened in the literature),
>     > > > > > panbiogeographic approaches do not ignore or disregard
>     molecular
>     > > > > divergence
>     > > > > > ages, but accept and incorporate those findings as
>     MINIMUM ages
>     > only.
>     > > > > That
>     > > > > > is science.
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > Cheers,
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > John Grehan
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > > On Fri, Dec 25, 2020 at 7:01 AM JF Mate
>     > > > > > <aphodiinaemate at gmail.com <mailto:aphodiinaemate at gmail.com>>
>     > > > > wrote:
>     > > > > >
>     > > > > >> Michael, regarding the calibration method used: "It
>     corresponds
>     > > > > >> to
>     > > the
>     > > > > >> origin of the crown European cyprinodontoid clade [39],
>     which
>     > > > > >> was
>     > > > > estimated
>     > > > > >> to have occurred at least 33 Ma on the basis of the oldest
>     > > > identifiable
>     > > > > >> clade member, the
>     > > > > >> fossil Prolebias stenoura Sauvage, 1874 from the Lower
>     Stampien
>     > > (Lower
>     > > > > >> Oligocene) of Puy-
>     > > > > >> de-Dome, France [40] (prior setting: lognormal
>     distribution,
>     > > > > >> mean =
>     > > 33
>     > > > > >> and standard devia-
>     > > > > >> tion = 0.5). ( [40] Costa WJEM. Oligocene killifishes
>     (Teleostei:
>     > > > > >> Cyprinodontiformes) from southern France: relationships,
>     > > > > >> taxonomic position, and evidence of internal fertilization.
>     > Vertebr Zool.
>     > > 2012;
>     > > > > 62:
>     > > > > >> 371–386.)
>     > > > > >>
>     > > > > >> John:
>     > > > > >> 0.5 SD on the fossil's age seems a reasonable and
>     conservative
>     > > range,
>     > > > > >> with a lognormal distribution for the node. My only
>     quibble is
>     > > > > >> why
>     > > not
>     > > > > use
>     > > > > >> lognormal or exponential for both points and maybe some
>     > > > > >> sentivity
>     > > > > analysis
>     > > > > >> in regards to this but other than that I wouldn't call
>     it twaddle.
>     > > Are
>     > > > > you
>     > > > > >> arguing for a minimum hardbound and if so what is your
>     > > justification?
>     > > > > >>
>     > > >
>     > > > _______________________________________________
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>     > > >
>     > > > Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 33 years,
>     > > 1987-2020.
>     > > >
>     > >
>     > >
>     > > --
>     > > Dunedin, New Zealand.
>     > >
>     > > My books:
>     > >
>     > > *Biogeography and evolution in New Zealand. *Taylor and
>     Francis/CRC,
>     > > Boca Raton FL. 2017.
>     > >
>     > >
>     https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.routledge.com%2FBiogeography-and-Evolution-in-New-Zealand%2FHe&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7C7a3eaa762f0646a6459b08d8ae763cf9%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451170171731680%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=rKB7Ru8jKvLARnVzC2bGkEOi1Zs5%2FmvPEgkNRdyknN4%3D&amp;reserved=0
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>     > > ads/p/book/9781498751872
>     > >
>     > >
>     > > *Biogeography of Australasia:  A molecular analysis*. Cambridge
>     > > University Press, Cambridge. 2014.
>     https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cambridge.org%2F9781107041028&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7C7a3eaa762f0646a6459b08d8ae763cf9%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451170171731680%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=OuqkLz955OExSc8Kv6m%2B1UNLlkHb0aM6ad%2FZeHBr%2Fs4%3D&amp;reserved=0<
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>     > >
>     > >
>     > > *Molecular panbiogeography of the tropics. *University of
>     California
>     > > Press, Berkeley. 2012.
>     https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ucpress.edu%2Fbook.php%3Fisbn%3D9780520271968&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cmivie%40montana.edu%7C7a3eaa762f0646a6459b08d8ae763cf9%7C324aa97a03a644fc91e43846fbced113%7C0%7C0%7C637451170171731680%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=o4QNtrTWFXhDGQRvwpcTGsIRoJutDBja5rcvW2GcgWc%3D&amp;reserved=0<
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>     > >
>     > >
>     > > *Panbiogeography: Tracking the history of life*. Oxford University
>     > > Press, New York. 1999. (With R. Craw and J. Grehan).
>     > >
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>     > > >
>     > > _______________________________________________
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>     > >
>     > > Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 33 years,
>     > 1987-2020.
>     > >
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>     >
>     > Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 33 years,
>     1987-2020.
>     >
>     > ________________________________
>     >
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>     > Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 33 years,
>     1987-2020.
>     > _______________________________________________
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>     >
>     > Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 33 years,
>     1987-2020.
>     >
>     _______________________________________________
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>
>     Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 33 years,
>     1987-2020.
>
-- 
__________________________________________________

Michael A. Ivie, Ph.D., F.R.E.S.

NOTE: two addresses with different Zip Codes depending on carriers

US Post Office Address:
Montana Entomology Collection
Marsh Labs, Room 50
PO Box 173145
Montana State University
Bozeman, MT 59717
USA

UPS, FedEx, DHL Address:
Montana Entomology Collection
Marsh Labs, Room 50
1911 West Lincoln Street
Montana State University
Bozeman, MT 59718
USA


(406) 994-4610 (voice)
(406) 994-6029 (FAX)
mivie at montana.edu





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