[Taxacom] Coronavirus

Sun Feb 2 11:51:09 CST 2020

Remember this (below) exchange? There was some doubt that the Wuhan coronavirus is a major problem.

I saw, however, a calculation on the Web that goes something like this:

There are 7.53  billion people on Earth, 7,530,000,000.
Say, 20% get the coronavirus.
That’s 1.506 billion or 1,506,000,000 people.
The death rate is presently almost exactly 0.02. 
That's 30,012,000 deaths worldwide.

There are 329 million people in the USA, 329,000,000.
Again, say 20% get the coronavirus.
That is 65,800,000 people.
The death rate may be 0.02.
That's 1.316 million deaths, 1,316,000.

The death rate from the flu in the USA was 34,000 in 2019.
If the coronavirus is not contained (as was the case SARS and MERS), or a vaccine rapidly devised and distributed, then:
It would take 38 years for the deaths from flu to reach the projected deaths from coronavirus.
If nothing is done.

The coronavirus is definitely a far worse problem than the flu.

-------
Richard H. Zander
Missouri Botanical Garden – 4344 Shaw Blvd. – St. Louis – Missouri – 63110 – USA
richard.zander at mobot.org Ofc: +1 314 577-0276
Web sites: http://www.mobot.org/plantscience/bfna/bfnamenu.htm and http://www.mobot.org/plantscience/resbot/ 

-----Original Message-----
From: Taxacom [mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu] On Behalf Of Draney, Michael via Taxacom
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2020 10:05 AM
To: Kenneth Kinman; taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu
Subject: Re: [Taxacom] Coronavirus

Hi Ken,

But SARS wasn't as easily transmitted human to human....probably why it didn't cause a pandemic.

"The death rate for influenza is only lower because of the sheer number of cases"....that's not true, but maybe you can explain what you mean by that.

It's the combination of transmissibility and virulence that makes this present virus worrisome.   I don't think it is hysterical to worry about it (although obviously you can go too far).

Best regards,

Mike D.

Michael L. Draney
Barbara Hauxhurst Cofrin Professor of Natural Sciences ............................................................................................
Chair, Department of Natural & Applied Sciences Laboratory Sciences Room 461 UW-Green Bay, 2420 Nicolet Drive, Green Bay, WI 54311
tel: 920-465-2270  |  email: draneym at uwgb.edu

From: Kenneth Kinman <kinman at hotmail.com>
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2020 10:00 AM
To: taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu; Draney, Michael <draneym at uwgb.edu>
Subject: Re: Coronavirus

CAUTION: This message was sent from an EXTERNAL EMAIL account. Please do not reply, click links, or open attachments unless you recognize the source of this email and know the content is safe.
Hi Mike,
          But the final death rate for the related coronavirus SARS was about 10% (about 800 deaths out of about 8.000 cases).  And that didn't cause a pandemic.  And the death rate for influenza is only lower because of the sheer number of cases.
                       ----------------Ken https://khn.org/news/flu-far-deadlier-than-wuhan-virus/<https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fkhn.org%2Fnews%2Fflu-far-deadlier-than-wuhan-virus%2F&data=01%7C01%7Cdraneym%40uwgb.edu%7C6d80c198ec69458e7c9908d7a3420851%7C7fc34f9d1f754f96b5b33cdcaab03aea%7C0&sdata=BVCUcnTbi7orOCNaT4Z%2BaPVZXUWWmQ2Jjb%2BHjG4VeQ4%3D&reserved=0>
[https://khn.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/01/GettyImages-1195641477_wuhan_1350.jpg]<https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fkhn.org%2Fnews%2Fflu-far-deadlier-than-wuhan-virus%2F&data=01%7C01%7Cdraneym%40uwgb.edu%7C6d80c198ec69458e7c9908d7a3420851%7C7fc34f9d1f754f96b5b33cdcaab03aea%7C0&sdata=BVCUcnTbi7orOCNaT4Z%2BaPVZXUWWmQ2Jjb%2BHjG4VeQ4%3D&reserved=0>
Something Far Deadlier Than The Wuhan Virus Lurks Near You | Kaiser Health News - khn.org<https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fkhn.org%2Fnews%2Fflu-far-deadlier-than-wuhan-virus%2F&data=01%7C01%7Cdraneym%40uwgb.edu%7C6d80c198ec69458e7c9908d7a3420851%7C7fc34f9d1f754f96b5b33cdcaab03aea%7C0&sdata=BVCUcnTbi7orOCNaT4Z%2BaPVZXUWWmQ2Jjb%2BHjG4VeQ4%3D&reserved=0>
There is a virus that has already sickened at least 13 million Americans this winter, hospitalizing 120,000 and killing 6,600 people. You may even know of it.
khn.org

________________________________
From: Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> on behalf of Draney, Michael via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2020 9:32 AM
To: taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu> <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
Subject: [Taxacom] Coronavirus

HI Ken,

Well, so far not many deaths....but among the detected cases so far, the mortality rate is on the rate of 2-4%, much higher than most influenza strains.   Admittedly, many Chinese cases are surely uncounted, and many of the less severe cases don't present at hospitals.  But there's definitely pandemic possibility here.

Mike D.

Michael L. Draney

Barbara Hauxhurst Cofrin Professor of Natural Sciences

............................................................................................

Chair, Department of Natural & Applied Sciences

Laboratory Sciences Room 461

UW-Green Bay, 2420 Nicolet Drive, Green Bay, WI 54311

tel: 920-465-2270  |  email: draneym at uwgb.edu<mailto:draneym at uwgb.edu>

Dear All,

      The news media seems to be overly hyping the threat of the new coronovirus.  However, the threat might not be any more than the related SARS virus (which killed about 800 people worldwide).  Furthermore, the threat of the flu is far greater (well over 8,000 deaths in the U.S. so far this season and probably hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide).  Hysteria like this could needlessly divert resources from detecting something even more deadly (which could cause a real pandemic).

       Quote:  "When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there's just no comparison," William Schaffner, a vaccine expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told Kaiser Health News (KHN)<https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fkhn.org%2Fnews%2Fflu-far-deadlier-than-wuhan-virus%2F&data=01%7C01%7Cdraneym%40uwgb.edu%7Cd16896b3d8804e648cc508d7a2d2cfdf%7C7fc34f9d1f754f96b5b33cdcaab03aea%7C0&sdata=zcvI%2F%2FjkpUCs4KrR%2Ba0X4WSJIxyxJlBe2sGybAO7p68%3D&reserved=0>. "Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison."

                                 --------------Ken Kinman

Source of quotes from William Schaffner:    https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fwuhan-coronavirus-lesser-threat-to-americans-than-flu-2020-1&data=01%7C01%7Cdraneym%40uwgb.edu%7Cd16896b3d8804e648cc508d7a2d2cfdf%7C7fc34f9d1f754f96b5b33cdcaab03aea%7C0&sdata=f11FHJerN38KgpKo33e2jmuuMuR71dZUT3nj7oGHIhA%3D&reserved=0<https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fwuhan-coronavirus-lesser-threat-to-americans-than-flu-2020-1&data=01%7C01%7Cdraneym%40uwgb.edu%7C6d80c198ec69458e7c9908d7a3420851%7C7fc34f9d1f754f96b5b33cdcaab03aea%7C0&sdata=p5qD9oqdFJbGshdZBgsVIJZkWxcKToUN4uNmSMFiC3U%3D&reserved=0>

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